Date: Tuesday, 4 November 2025.
Distance: 3,200 metres (handicap).
Field size: 24 runners.
Conditions: Wet-track forecast could play a role — many form guides note rain affecting the Flemington surface.
Key contenders
Here are some of the leading horses to keep an eye on:
HorseTrainerJockeyWeight & Barrier*Form / OddsCommentsAl Riffa (FR) Joseph O’Brien Mark Zahra 59 kg, Barrier 19 Odds ~ $8 / strong recent wins in Europe. Top-weight, strong staying form. Barrier wide is a concern.
Buckaroo (GB) Chris Waller Craig Williams 57 kg, Barrier 12 Odds ~ $9. Classy import, good form, but has distance and Cup experience queries.
Presage Nocturne (IRE) Alessandro Botti Stéphane Pasquier 55.5 kg Odds ~ $8.50. Suited to longer trip; could thrive if track is soft.
Vauban (FR) Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Blake Shinn 56.5 kg, Barrier 2 Odds ~ $26. Third attempt at the Cup; barrier draw favourable but prior Cup runs disappointing.
Arapaho (FR) Bjorn Baker Rachel King 56.5 kg, Barrier 15 Odds ~ $41. Veteran staying horse, likes wet ground, but age (9yo) counts against.
Chevalier Rose (JPN) Hisashi Shimizu Damian Lane 55.5 kg Odds ~ $51. Japanese stayer, improving but first time at this level/trip in Australia.
*Weights and barriers according to latest available. Some data subject to change.
Form & conditions influencing factors
The Melbourne Cup is a true test of staying ability over 3200m, so horses with proven form beyond 2400m and those that handle varying track conditions are advantaged.
With rain forecast and possibly soft/heavy going at Flemington, horses that handle wet or soft conditions may get an edge.
Barrier draw, weight carried (handicap) and experience at the Cup distance make a big difference. For example, a top-weight like Al Riffa carries extra challenge.
Tips & betting thoughts
According to several expert guides, Al Riffa and Presage Nocturne appear very strong chances given form and conditions.
Buckaroo is a serious contender and likely one of the top picks for those seeking a balanced favourite/each-way play.
For a roughie: Arapaho appeals as a value bet if the track is wet and he can settle well.
The trend: locally trained horses have an advantage when acclimatised; but international stayers continue to dominate the Cup era.
Keep an eye on weight: in the Cup handicap, the difference between weight carried can decide the result.
Summary of favourite-to-watch
If I were to pick one to focus on: Presage Nocturne stands out for me. With strong staying credentials, a favourable weight, and potential to benefit from softer ground, he ticks many boxes. Al Riffa remains extremely credible but the top weight and barrier draw give some pause. Buckaroo is the local hope.
Conclusion
The 2025 Melbourne Cup is shaping up as a fascinating contest of staying power, international versus local challengers, and conditions that could play a decisive role. Whether you’re analysing form, jockey-trainer combinations, weights or track forecasts — they all matter. In such a deep field, any horse that brings together strong staying form, good barrier, favourable weight and ability to handle soft going is likely to be in the mix.
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