Final Judgement: Can Kings Lose By Less Than 41?

 

Tight Game (Most Likely Outcome)

Kings lose by 10–15 points
This is the most balanced, realistic type of game — competitive early, but Memphis pulls ahead in the 3rd and manages the lead late.
Simulated Scoreline:

Memphis Grizzlies 118 — Sacramento Kings 108
(Margin: 10)
How the game unfolds:

Kings shoot decently (46%) but struggle from deep

Grizzlies win the rebound battle and control the tempo

Sacramento goes cold for a few minutes in the 3rd quarter

Memphis closes the game calmly at the line or with strong half-court sets
Key indicators:

Kings turnover count under control (12–14)

Grizzlies shoot average—not hot, not cold

No long Sacramento scoring drought

→ Very realistic. Kings lose, but comfortably under 41. 

 Scenario 2: Moderate Loss (Possible)

Kings lose by 15–25 points
This usually happens when Sacramento’s defense collapses for a stretch, or their shooting goes cold.
Simulated Scoreline:

Memphis Grizzlies 124 — Sacramento Kings 101
(Margin: 23)
Game flow:

Kings shoot poorly (40–42%)

Memphis gets 18–25 fast-break points 

Sacramento loses defensive focus in the 3rd quarter 

A big Memphis run (e.g., 16–4) breaks the game open

Kings fight back but can’t close the gap
Key indicators:

3-point shooting drops below 32%

Memphis dominates inside scoring 

Sacramento loses the turnover battle

→ Still well under 41. This outcome is very possible. 

 Scenario 3: Full Blowout (Worst Case)

Kings lose by 30–40+ points
This only happens if everything goes wrong for Sacramento and Memphis plays at full throttle.
Simulated Scoreline:

Memphis Grizzlies 137 — Sacramento Kings 92
(Margin: 45)
Game flow:

Kings shoot under 40%

Memphis shoots 52–56% and hits 15–20 threes

Sacramento commits 18+ turnovers

Kings bench gets outscored heavily

A brutal 2nd or 3rd quarter run (like 32–12) breaks the spirit
Key indicators:

Memphis creates 25–30 points off turnovers

Kings starters finish with negative plus/minus

Grizzlies get 60+ points in the paint

→ This is the scenario required for “lose by more than 41” — and it’s the least likely.